The cards on the table for Syria - nice missiles a-comin'!

The situation around Syria is evolving in seemingly contradictory ways.
    Following, I will speculate on why.
Trump: shout loud, shoot blanks

Let us start by looking at Trump: from 'America first' he apparently came to Obama's position 'don't Assad cross the red - chemical - line'. The red line was supposedly crossed at Khan Sheikhoun in 2017 and Trump answered1. Now we are oriented to the same direction. A chemical attack in Syria - no matter how dubious - is still a pretest for a military retalation. Trump is outlining his actual answers as roboant public declarations followed by pirotecnic - yet strategically useless - demonstrations of strength. It is thus evident that Trump is trying to appease 'interventists' and yet to prevent an escalation in Syria. 

How can Trump prevent such an escalation? Besides him, the politic of the USA in the region in the last years has been focused on Assad's removal and on a regime change in Syria2. Trump risks to be sidelined. The West is quite determined to get a casus belli to justify a wider intervention in Syria. It is possible that such an occasion will present itself - or will be made up. However, the war in Syria is also about to end and Assad is on the winners' side. Once the war will be concluded, then no more easy pretests will be available to claim an impending need for a regime change3. That would bring forth a real possibility for peace efforts and reconstruction in Syria.

So he can't be accused of inaction.

 The Kurds card for destabilization

An incognita still remains in the form of the Kurds. They took the Syrian war as their shot at autonomy and they were indeed determinant in defeating ISIS on the field4. They could still be used to stir trouble in Syria by not accepting a full reunification of the Country under Assad. USA already tried to support Kurds toward that aim5. How could Kurds resume their independentist ambitions in Syria, facing both the Syrian Arab Army on the front and the Turkish on the side? Turkey's Olive Branch Operation was carried on just as Erdogan's and Putin's relationships strengthened6,7. Is it possible that Putin allowed it in order to prevent the USA to play the Kurds card further? Even if his rival Assad does not fall, Erdogan can still defeat Kurds at his borders and gain a renewed strategic partnership with Russia.


Trump and Putin – converging goals on the war end?

The present crisis can be seen as part of a race to prevent Assad - and his allies Russia and Iran - to set conditions for the peace in Syria. Such an acceleration - from all the sides - possibly means that the end of the war is really imminent. Both Trump and Putin seem to be betting heavily on that. Would not it be the case, then the risk of an extension of the conflict to NATO and Russia and Iran becomes real.  

If really Trump and Putin are working - in parallel, as far as we know - to avoid it, that tells more about their common sense than about their alleged collusion. Then, it also evidences that Trump is able to use his boisterous image as an asset. For all his supposed impulsivity, so far he was very equilibrated in managing the Syrian crisis (as well as the North Korean one). For sure, many American politicians and militaries – not limiting to the ‘neo-con’ – does not share his views. The Russiagate likely has more to do with putting political pressure on President Trump than with actual justice or morality.
  

References






6: https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201804011063109618-erdogan-aide-operations-impossible-russia/

7: https://www.forbes.com/sites/annaborshchevskaya/2017/01/27/is-erdogan-a-russian-ally-or-putins-puppet/#da32dd315967

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