The cards on the table for Syria - nice missiles a-comin'!

The situation around Syria is evolving in seemingly contradictory ways.
    Following, I will speculate on why.
Trump: shout loud, shoot blanks

Let us start by looking at Trump: from 'America first' he apparently came to Obama's position 'don't Assad cross the red - chemical - line'. The red line was supposedly crossed at Khan Sheikhoun in 2017 and Trump answered1. Now we are oriented to the same direction. A chemical attack in Syria - no matter how dubious - is still a pretest for a military retalation. Trump is outlining his actual answers as roboant public declarations followed by pirotecnic - yet strategically useless - demonstrations of strength. It is thus evident that Trump is trying to appease 'interventists' and yet to prevent an escalation in Syria. 

How can Trump prevent such an escalation? Besides him, the politic of the USA in the region in the last years has been focused on Assad's removal and on a regime change in Syria2. Trump risks to be sidelined. The West is quite determined to get a casus belli to justify a wider intervention in Syria. It is possible that such an occasion will present itself - or will be made up. However, the war in Syria is also about to end and Assad is on the winners' side. Once the war will be concluded, then no more easy pretests will be available to claim an impending need for a regime change3. That would bring forth a real possibility for peace efforts and reconstruction in Syria.

So he can't be accused of inaction.

 The Kurds card for destabilization

An incognita still remains in the form of the Kurds. They took the Syrian war as their shot at autonomy and they were indeed determinant in defeating ISIS on the field4. They could still be used to stir trouble in Syria by not accepting a full reunification of the Country under Assad. USA already tried to support Kurds toward that aim5. How could Kurds resume their independentist ambitions in Syria, facing both the Syrian Arab Army on the front and the Turkish on the side? Turkey's Olive Branch Operation was carried on just as Erdogan's and Putin's relationships strengthened6,7. Is it possible that Putin allowed it in order to prevent the USA to play the Kurds card further? Even if his rival Assad does not fall, Erdogan can still defeat Kurds at his borders and gain a renewed strategic partnership with Russia.


Trump and Putin – converging goals on the war end?

The present crisis can be seen as part of a race to prevent Assad - and his allies Russia and Iran - to set conditions for the peace in Syria. Such an acceleration - from all the sides - possibly means that the end of the war is really imminent. Both Trump and Putin seem to be betting heavily on that. Would not it be the case, then the risk of an extension of the conflict to NATO and Russia and Iran becomes real.  

If really Trump and Putin are working - in parallel, as far as we know - to avoid it, that tells more about their common sense than about their alleged collusion. Then, it also evidences that Trump is able to use his boisterous image as an asset. For all his supposed impulsivity, so far he was very equilibrated in managing the Syrian crisis (as well as the North Korean one). For sure, many American politicians and militaries – not limiting to the ‘neo-con’ – does not share his views. The Russiagate likely has more to do with putting political pressure on President Trump than with actual justice or morality.
  

References






6: https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201804011063109618-erdogan-aide-operations-impossible-russia/

7: https://www.forbes.com/sites/annaborshchevskaya/2017/01/27/is-erdogan-a-russian-ally-or-putins-puppet/#da32dd315967

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

How and why the West supports Muslim extremists – a double-edge sword

Image
First of all, happy New Year everyone.     Unfortunately, we closed our 2017 fearing terror attacks. It has not been the first year this happens.     Then let us ask ourselves: are Muslim extremists a threat?     The honest answer is yes .     After the 9/11/2001, in theory the War on Terror was an attempt to answer some of the actions they inspired and carried out.      However, the War lead to even more instability in the Middle East and in the world at large.     Something did not work out. How? Why?     Was - and is - the West really serious and dedicated to fight and counter Muslim extremists? Muslim integralists' communities in Western cities First, let's consider what happens in our own cities. There are many communities inspired to fundamentalist teachings of the Quran all through Western countries. These communities are tolerated to varying degrees. They are Muslim enclaves in Western cities, where it is not always clear if Sharia prevails ove
Read more

8 - Anatomy, physiology and pathology of the State - kidneys

Image
And here is another piece in our series - our puzzle of how a State would look like if it was a human body.    We last talked about about lungs as investments , bringing money in the system; and before that, we compared blood to money and the heart to trade .     A major player in regulating blood homeostasis is the kidney. What would a good equivalent be in a State?     Let us unravel it. Anatomy - Kidneys filter blood as Central Banks check on finance and economy from Johnson MD, Human Biology, Concepts and Current Issues, 7th Edition; the Urinary System [https://slideplayer.com/slide/6204959/] Kindeys are remarkable organs. Their functional unit is the nephron, made of the glomerulus, the Bowman's capsule and the renal tubule. The filtration process is carried by the glomerulus, with an arteriole that enters and divides to form a net of capillaries. Those then recompose themselves in another arteriole which exits the glomerulus. The whole surface of
Read more

On the nature of power – where it comes from, how it spirals out of control

Image
Power. That is the abstract concept behind the one of leadership, fundamental to understand the evolution of human sociality. The nature of power is elusive and yet fascinating.  Everyone wants power . There are the ones who want to rule, and they need power; the ones who strive to accomplish, and they need power; even the ones who just wish to live quiet and unnoticed, they need the power to have someone else manage responsibilities in their place. Any ambition has to be sustained by power. And power is in the first place the power to choose; who to be, what to do, how to act or even to not act at all. What is power? So many variables and just one word, then. What is power? How would you define it? ‘Power’ has many possible facets, depending on the contexts. In general, we can say that power is the capability to bend and shape specific aspects of reality according to one’s will. This is magnified when people work together – humans are a social spec
Read more