How to take on Russia via Syria - why did Russia become an obsession?

The Syrian Civil War ending... and then what?

from https://buffalonews.com/2018/04/17/
the-briefing-why-syria-matters/

In Syria, the battle for Idlib - until now occupied by terrorists affiliated and related to Al-Qaeda - is imminent. Other territories controlled by rebels - 'moderate' or not - are few and isolated. Kurds are negotiating with Assad and will likely see recognized part of the autonomy they ask, if Syria territorial integrity will be reconstituted. All in all, the war in Syria is coming to its conclusion - and the USA-led Coalition can't do much to hinder that, as we prefigured.

So, is it almost done? Or do we have to expect other crisis and possibly escalations before we can call the conflict off?

Of course, in a future perspective, one major issue will be Israel attitude - along with the ones of Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the backsides. Relationships between Israel and Syria will be difficult to normalize without finding a compromise over the expanded influence of Iran¹. Assad will have to be careful with managing the transition to peace. Kurds' autonomy and Turkey interests will also be at odds, as Turkey intervention with Operation Olive Branch already made clear². Importantly, on all these aspects Russia has played a successful mediatory role³.

Russian intervention in Syria messed up American chessboard of the Middle East

However, in the present, Idlib becoming a battlefront may offer a few last occasions to give new spark to the conflict. USA statements and Russia warnings over the possible use of chemical weapons⁴ highlight the risk of a new 'incident' following the scheme of the Khan Sheikhoun and Ghouta ones. If something like that indeed happens - what would Assad gain from it anyway? -, will USA retaliate again with few targeted strikes and call it over? Or will it be a more serious attack? In the first case, Russia may not react; but what if the second possibility comes true? Russia made Syria the cornerstone of its strategy in the Middle East, the center of its military efforts since 2015 and its only guaranteed base facing the Mediterranean Sea. It appears unlikely that Putin will let his most reliable ally in the region be attacked again without intervening.

Both USA and Russia are indeed moving impressive military forces, either to deploy them in preparation of the battle in Syria⁵ or in shows of strength. Notable examples of this last point are the re-activation of the USA Second Fleet in the Atlantic Ocean⁶ and the Russian/Chinese joint military games⁷.

Once again, Syria is becoming a hotspot where much attention and interests converge. It did not start like that; originally, it was just another one of the Countries subject to the Arab Springs⁸. Uprisings were supposed to lead to a much more swift overthrowing of Assad - like Gaddafi in Libya, Mubarak in Egypt, and so on. The Islamic State has been an 'incident' that happened amidst the chaos and yet was functional to that same chaos. The USA-led Coalition in Syria did not oppose the Islamic State seriously enough, because the actual priority was the regime change and the fall of Assad.

Not Syria - the point is Russia, an old rival that must not rise again

When did this change from a regional conflict to one with much more international weight (and risks)? In 2015, Putin's decision to stop Obama from directly attack Syria signaled the change in the war's momentum⁹. USA were prevented from further carrying their design for Syria - which likely was not that important by itself. More than Syria fate mattered Russia resolve. Putin's rule of Russia has been very different from Yeltsin's - much less complying to Western interests¹⁰.

from http://geoawesomeness.com/top-14-maps-charts-explain-nato/

As the winners of the Cold War, USA approach to the defeated Russia could have not been more different than Putin's vision. That lead to NATO expansion eastwards through Europe, since 1999, aiming to put political and potentially military pressure on Russia. Eventually, that escalated with several crisis: first in Georgia in 2008¹¹, then in Ukraine from 2014 and - of course - in Syria. Over time, in parallel with that, Putin's depiction on Western mainstream media increasingly worsened. It is safe to assume that Putin's sin is not to be anti-democratic - how many authoritarian and illiberal regimes are out there, much more intolerant than Russia? Remind: we are allied with Saudi Arabia - his sin is to think that he can oppose the USA-led West.

That is why a Russia-allied Syria has become so important. That is why American and European media constantly tell people how much of a monster Putin is - hypocritically passing under silence other despicable governments. Russia lost its status as a Superpower, but now it is regaining importance and international weight. While the same can be said of China - actually a much more dangerous rival for USA supremacy - Russia is an easier target and scapegoat. After all, China economical leverage is so huge that is difficult even for the USA to approach it directly and drastically. For some American interests, Russia is perfect to have a fray with - Syria is a convenient excuse.

The wild card - what will Trump do?

Trump's position is as usual delicate and he has to remain somehow ambiguous. As of now, he has mostly inherited a politic opposed to Russia from the previous Obama's Administrations. Such politic is supported by both Liberals and Neocons - indicating where the political ramifications of the American 'Deep State' start and end. As demonstrated by the reactions to the recent Helsinki Summit, any attempt to obtain better relationships between USA and Russia will be met with high resistance from the establishment and the media. The Russiagate, while deprived of real substance¹², is still wielded as a mediatic weapon against a democratically elected President - with the exact goal of preventing him from applying the most controversial points of his agenda. That includes keeping American attitude toward Russia at its worst in decades.

We still have to see if Trump can and will change this course. Meanwhile, every step of Putin can become a pretext to further raise the attrition against Russia. More sanctions can always be added; NATO troops can come even a bit closer to Russian borders. And after any Syria, there can be another Ukraine.

References

¹: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-says-it-will-keep-hitting-iran-as-tehran-says-its-staying-in-syria/

²: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkey-kurds-afrin-syria-attack-troops-operation-olive-branch-a8170646.html

³: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/opinion/russia-prevent-israel-iran-war-syria.html

⁴: https://www.rferl.org/a/us-warns-russia-will-take-strong-action-over-any-syrian-chemical-attack-idlib-province/29452443.html

⁵: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/russia-claims-u-s-preparing-for-possible-strike-on-syria-1.6420955

⁶: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/04/politics/us-navy-second-fleet-russia-tensions/index.html

⁷: https://freebeacon.com/national-security/chinese-military-joining-russians-nuclear-war-games/

⁸: https://www.theodysseyonline.com/the-arab-spring-and-its-unintended-effects-in-syria-civil-war-assad-2017-usa-russia

⁹: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/30/syria-russia-assad-obama-putin-analysis

¹⁰: https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/Why-the-West-loved-Yeltsin-and-hates-Putin/article15188045.ece

¹¹: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/07/world/europe/07russia.html

¹²: https://consortiumnews.com/2018/07/14/clinging-to-collusion-why-evidence-will-probably-never-be-produced-in-the-indictments-of-russian-agents/